SP Angel . Morning View . Monday 01 02 21

Silver hits resistance at $30 on Robinhood as futures bid higher on Sunday night

Copper pulls back on weaker than expected Chinese PMIs

 

AEX Gold Inc (LON:AEXG) – Initial sampling at Kangerluluk indicates positive results

Castillo Copper (LON:CCZ) – Appointment of key advisors for the Big One project in Queensland

Empire Metals* (LON:EEE) – ​Eclipse 4,000m drill program nears completion

Jangada Mines (LON:JAN) – ValOre financing & Fodere investment

Kodal Minerals* (LON:KOD) – Extension request from JV partner rejected as Kodal set to own 100% of West African gold concessions

Scotgold Resources* (LON:SGZ) – BUY, Target 177p – Earnings Updated

 

Silver futures hit highest level since 2013 on unprecedented retail investor demand

Silver futures on Comex jumped 13% to as much as $30.35/oz on Monday, following the weekend which saw online sellers of silver coins and bars run out of stock across the world.

Retail frenzy in the silver market has been driven by Reddit-inspired speculators who last week declared the metal “the biggest short in the world” and encouraged traders to pile into the iShares trust, in a similar way to GameStock- reported extensively last week.

Silver differs in important ways from struggling US retailers like GameStock, with many funds bullish on precious metals, and Bloomberg report that money managers have had a net-long position on the metal since mid-2019.

Analysts are also questioning the retail crowd’s ability to squeeze the silver market, with the value of silver sitting in London vaults alone currently at $48bn, compared to GameStock’s market cap of $1.4bn in mid-January.

Members of the Wall Street Bets group are also questioning the effectiveness of the group‘s latest crusade, as the group’s nemesis, Ken Griffin’s Citadel standing to benefit as a major holder of the largest silver ETF.

Sharps Pixley and Bullion By Post have both run out of their best value 1kg silver bars as of 8.30am this morning London time.

Silver producers surged Monday morning, with Fresnillo +17%, Polymetal +6%, Hochschild Mining +17%.

London silver stocks: Hochschild, Fresnillo, Phoenix Copper*

 

Metals price forecasting through 2020 – 2020 was probably the most difficult year for forecasting anything

No.1 in Copper:  “The winner of the 2020Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an  accuracy score of 93.8%”

No1. In Gold:  “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”

The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020

2020 was probably the most difficult year for forecasting anything so we are very pleased to have ranked so well in the two key metals we cover

Please contact us directly for our updated metals price forecasts for 2021 and beyond

 

Recent Interviews:

IGTV:   Metals expected to continue the last-year gains into 2021 https://youtu.be/afrB9cJe8L0

Is 2021 the start of the new COVID-Supercycle or will Lockdowns delay the recovery? https://youtu.be/7LO0tDc-pNc

As traders continue to bid up Tesla, is the EV sector approaching a bubble? https://youtu.be/LaDWBpTZ7SQ

Copper price rise: https://youtu.be/mdPXTup15VY

 

VOX:    28/01/20 https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/john-meyer-covers-news-from-bluerock-rambler-altus-anglo-asian-mining-85f68e3

21/01/20 https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/media/600a877b40dc224b8b88a983/?context=/listings/LON/SML/multimedia/

13/01/20 https://audioboom.com/posts/7770987-john-meyer-on-lithium-ironridge-res-savannah-res-kodal-mins-cornish-metals-bluerock-diamonds

 

iiTV:     The mining stock to own in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4x7SuSLQwCI&t=11s

Small Cap Mining Share tips for 2021 – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_6RKAp91k4

Miners for a green industrial revolution – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXlNS6JIDvg&t=3s

A Mining megatrend and three solid dividend stocks – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sH5r-QbTRwg

*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts.

We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, one and all, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.

 

Dow Jones Industrials -2.03% at 29,983

Nikkei 225 +1.55% at 28,091

HK Hang Seng +2.15% at 28,893

Shanghai Composite +0.64% at 3,505

 

Economics

US – US Republican senators urged President Biden to downsize the proposed earlier $1.9tn stimulus package to win bipartisan support.

GOP proposal offered to the President was for $600bn with Biden set to meet senators at the White house on Monday afternoon to discuss their alternative.

GDP rose 4% qoq in Q4 but -3.5% for 2020

Kansas Fed manufacturing index 22 in January vs 12 in December

University of Michigan consumer sentiment index 79.2 in January vs 80.7 in December

Chicago PMI gained to 63.8 in January vs 59.5 in December  

 

China – Business PMIs show a slowdown in growth momentum for a second month in January with the slowdown in services more pronounced than manufacturing.

Travel restrictions amid a resurgence in new cases weighed on the sentiment.

A separate report measuring private sector manufacturing PMI showed same dynamics with the index pulling back to 51.5 in January from 53.0 in the previous month and 52.6 est.

Central bank is seen easing credit supply helping overnight borrowing rates lower following the worst cash squeeze recorded since 2015 last week.

The interbank repo slid 55bp to 2.78% on Monday after a net 98bn CNY injection from the PBOC.

Although authorities are also looking at limiting travel with Ministry of Transport officials saying earlier in January that there would be 40% less trips this.

Separately, China reported only 33 new locally transmitted cases of COVID-19 today marking the lowest level in more than three weeks.

Falling numbers of new infections is a welcome news in the light of the coming holiday season celebrations that see a surge in travel in the country.

Manufacturing PMI: 51.3 v 51.9 in December and 51.6 est.

Services PMI: 52.4 v 55.7 in December and 55.0 est.

Composite PMI: 52.8 v 55.1 in December.

Industrial profits rose 4.1% YTD to December yoy

 

EU – Economic sentiment improved -5.9 in January vs -6.8 in December

Industrial confidence -5.9 (-6.8),

Service confidence -17.8 (-17.1), and

Consumer confidence -15.5 (-13.8),

 

France – Preliminary GDP -1.3%qoq in Q4 vs 18.5% in Q3

 

Germany – Retail sales fell 9.6%mom in December after the government introduced stricter measures mid-month.

This compares to a revised increase of 1.1%mom in November.

The government closed most shops and services from mid-December following a partial lockdown for bars, restaurants and entertainment venues introduced in early November.

Markit Manufacturing PMI: 57.1 v 57.0 in December and 57.0 est.

Flash GDP 0.1% qoq in Q4 vs 8.5% in Q3 and -3.9% yoy vs -4% yoy in Q3

GfK consumer confidence fell 15.6 for February vs -7.5 in January

 

Japan – Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.8 in January from 50.0 in December as companies struggled under new restrictions linked to the state of emergency.

Export demand dropped for a third month, falling at a faster pace than that seen in December.

 

South Korea – Business confidence rose to 85 in January vs 82 previously

 

Japan – Consumer confidence pulled back to 29.6 in January vs 31.8 previously

 

Singapore – Business confidence gained to 32 in Q4 vs -3 for the previous quarter

 

Sweden – Business confidence gained to 96 vs 92.7 previously

Consumer confidence 93.1 vs 92

 

UK – The central bank is expected to stay put this Thursday despite expected economic growth rates downgrades, FT reports.

The BOW is forecast to look through the current downturn and focus on a recovery in H2/21 arguing the economy remain on track for its 2% inflation medium term target.

 

Ryanair is expected to post a €850-950m loss in the financial year to March warning the near term outlook remain uncertain.

 

France – Markit Manufacturing PMI: 51.6 v 51.5 in December and 51.5 est.

 

Italy – Markit Manufacturing PMI: 55.1 v 52.8 in December and 52.4 est.

 

Spain – Markit Manufacturing PMI: 49.3 v 51.0 in December and 50.9 est.

 

India – The government is planning to up its infrastructure spending including investment in roads and railways with capital expenditure estimated to grow by a third to $75bn in the coming financial year (April start).

New spending was announced as Finance Minister announced a new 2021/22 budget.

Additionally, the administration is looking to boost health spending by 137% to $31bn.

GDP is estimating to post a 7.7%yoy drop this year before rebounding to 11% in the coming financial year.

 

South Korea – A good barometer of global demand, nation’s exports posted its best January on record while manufacturing activity reached the strongest level in a decade, Bloomberg reports.

This adds optimism that global commerce is on track for a recovery following a virus related slump.

Exports were up 11%yoy v 9.8%yoy expected.

Separately, Markit reported manufacturing sector PMI climbed to 53.2, the highest since 2011 and marking the fourth consecutive above-50 monthly reading.

 

Myanmar – The army seize an elected government of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in a military coup, Reuters reports.

The military said detentions were carried out in response to “election fraud” handing power to army chief Min Aung Hlaing and imposing a state of emergency for one year.

 

Currencies US$1.2121/eur vs 1.2106eur last week.  Yen 104.71/$ vs 104.57/$.  SAr 15.071/$ vs 15.206/$.  $1.374/gbp vs $1.368/gbp.  0.765/aud vs 0.765/aud.  CNY 6.458/$ vs 6.460/$.

 

Commodity News

Precious metals:  

Gold US$1,863/oz vs US$1,846/oz last week

Gold ETFs 106.8moz vs US$106.9moz last week

Platinum US$1,120/oz vs US$1,079/oz last week

Palladium US$2,258/oz vs US$2,335/oz last week

Silver US$29.61/oz vs US$26.43/oz last week

 

Base metals:  

Copper US$ 7,852/t vs US$7,840/t last week –

Chilean copper concentrate shipments delayed due to adverse maritime conditions

Shipments from mines including Escondida and Collahuasi have been delayed for two to three weeks due to high waves along the Chilean coastline, Fastmarkets reports.

Multiple clients in Asia have confirmed the delay for Fastmarkets, with shipments now set to arrive right ahead or during the Lunar New Year.

China’s unofficial ban on Australian supply has increased tightness in the market, which is now set to be magnified further due to export constrains from top producer Chile.

 

Aluminium US$ 1,984/t vs US$1,984/t last week

Nickel US$ 17,900/t vs US$17,580/t last week

Zinc US$ 2,581/t vs US$2,583/t last week

Lead US$ 2,032/t vs US$2,010/t last week

Tin US$ 22,640/t vs US$22,900/t last week

Energy:           

Oil US$55.6/bbl vs US$55.3/bbl last week

Oil prices have remained resiliently poised above US$50/bbl as data points out of the US instilled an improved outlook for demand with crude inventories falling 9.91MMbbls in the week ending 22 January versus forecasts for a 0.43M rise

At the same time, figures coming out of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed crude production narrowing to 10,900K after holding at 11,000K for five consecutive weeks.

These bullish supply-demand dynamics have seen the backwardation of the oil futures curve intensify in recent days

The spread between the March 2021 and March 2022 contracts has soared to its highest levels in over a year, which hints at strong-near term demand

In addition, coronavirus vaccination rates are notably climbing, and the 7-day moving average tracking global cases falling by over 200,000 since peaking at 741,784 on 12 January, there is a distinct possibility that nations around the world will be able to start rolling back restrictive measures in the coming months

This could pave the way for a marked recovery in overall mobility and would probably propel oil prices even higher

Looking ahead, the upcoming OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting will be a key area of market focus to determine the groups approach to production in the near term

Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo insisted that the group “will continue to take a month-by-month approach to assessing market conditions”

Barkindo also reiterated that OPEC and its allies “stand ready to take any necessary actions” to soften the fallout from any potential deterioration in global fundamentals suggesting that OPEC will continue to regulate the energy market in 2021

Therefore, crude oil could be poised to extend its recent gains if global coronavirus cases continue to decline and OPEC holds fire on reintroducing additional supply

Natural Gas US$2.741/mmbtu vs US$2.673/mmbtu last week

Natural gas prices moved lower on Friday, declining more than 3%, as warmer than normal weather is expected to cover most of the east coast for the next weeks

According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, the weather is forecast to be cooler than normal on the US west coast during the same period

Demand rose in the latest week driven by heating and power generation

 

Bulk:   

Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$152.3/t vs US$153.4/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$668.3/t vs US$668.1/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$69.5/t vs US$70.0/t – Planned coalmine will undermine UK’s authority on climate change   

Approved plans for a new coalmine in Cumbria will produce more emissions than any of the others open in the UK.  

The new mine will be used to extract coking coal for steel production and was granted planning permission by Cumbria county council in October.  

The mine is expected to increase UK emissions by 0.4Mt of CO2e per year.  

Campaigners, including Greta Thunberg, have criticised the go ahead for the coalmine, warning it undermines the government’s commitments to cutting emissions tot net zero by 2050.  

Lord Debden, Chair of the independent Climate Change Committee said that it “gives a negative impression of the UK’s climate priorities in the year of COP26. 

Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$160.0/t vs US$160.0/t

           

Other: 

Cobalt LME 3m US$41,250/t vs US$41,250/t

NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$70,069/t vs US$70,046/t

Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$10,607/t vs US$10,526/t

Ferro Vanadium 80% FOB (China) US$30.5/kg vs US$30.5/kg

Ferro-Manganese high carbon 78% Mn US$1,560/t vs US$1,490/t

Tungsten APT European US$245-250/mtu vs US$240-245/mtu

Graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, fob China US$560/t vs US$530/t                

Graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, fob China US$2,625/t vs US$2,475/t

Spodumene 6% Li2O min, cif (China) US$455/t vs US$395/t

 

Company News

AEX Gold Inc (AEXG LN) – 54p, Mkt cap £90.3m – Initial sampling at Kangerluluk indicates positive results

AEX has progressed exploration at its Kangerluluk gold prospect, 120km northeast of the Company’s Nalunaq project and within the Nanortalik Gold Belt. Exploration at the prospect aims to build on work carried out during 2020, including sampling potential down-dip extensions, and capturing high resolution images to assist with 3D modelling and future exploration planning in order to confirm historic grades from the main shear zone.

Historical exploration on the prospect has resulted in encouraging gold samples within steeply dipping quartz-bearing shear zones, the most prominent of which is over 1km long and up to 20m wide. Gold is associated with copper and occurs in quartz veins and zones of hydrothermal alteration that are 2-5 m wide.

Historical channel sampling of the main shear zone has returned high grade results with highlights of 175.1 g/t gold over 0.8 m and 35.4 g/t gold over 0.95 m, and with grab samples up to 118 g/t gold, while one grab sample collected from the main shear zone in 2020 returned 22.3 g/t gold.

A float sample of highly altered metavolcanic rock rich in malachite and pyrite was collected close to Kangerluluk fjord, approximately 100 metres east of the main shear zone and returned 3.83% copper and 34 g/t silver.

Detailed structural mapping is to be carried out this year to better understand the controls on potential high-grade ore shoots within the wider shear zone which could then be targeted with an initial phase of diamond drilling.

Eldur Olafsson, CEO of AEX, commented: “I am very pleased to announce this preliminary data on our Kangerluluk licence, our most northerly asset on the Nanortalik Gold Belt where we hold the vast majority of the acreage. Yet again, the grades reiterate our belief that we are uncovering one of the most exciting Gold provinces in the world. We will continue to carry out exploration activity this year on this licence and over the rest of our portfolio of licences.”

 

Castillo Copper (CCZ LN) 3.7p, Mkt Cap £35.6m – Appointment of key advisors for the Big One project in Queensland

Castillo Copper has announced the appointment of advisors to assist in progressing its Big One copper project in Queensland it expects to release “a comprehensive update” imminently.

Assisting in the preparation of a maiden, JORC-compliant, inferred mineral resource estimate based on both historic and current data, Castillo Copper has appointed ROM Resources.

In addition, a geophysics consulting company, GeoDiscovery Group, “has been appointed to undertake an extensive geophysical survey” aimed at the identification of “massive sulphide bedrock conductors along the 1,200m strike extent that potentially extends known mineralisation … [and] … Provide geophysical insights into several known yet under-explored nearby anomalies, which include previously mapped gossanous outcrops to the north-east of the recent drilling campaign “.

The survey results should assist the geological team to “further refine and optimise the drilling campaign to increase the probability of intersecting mineralisation”.

Managing Director, Simon Paull, confirmed that “we are now moving aggressively to extend known mineralisation, identify new targets and prove up an inaugural resource.”

Conclusion: Castillo Copper recently announced that it was considering the divestment of other Australian exploration in order to focus on the Big One project. The appointment of specialist advisors to assist underlines its focus. We look forward to the forthcoming technical review of the project.

 

Empire Metals* (EEE LN) 3.7p, Mkt cap £12m – ​Eclipse 4,000m drill program nears completion

(Empire has acquired 75% of the Eclipse project)

Empire Metals report the near completion at the Eclipse gold project just north of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia.

Some 3,800m of the 4,000m RC drill program has been done with drilling has intercepting a number of wide quartz veins in areas beyond and below the Eclipse old workings.

We look forward to results from the assay laboratory over the next few weeks

Two results released today show:

Hole 3: 8m @ 2.83 g/t gold from 118m down hole

Hole 4: 3m @ 2.60 g/t gold from 134m.

Drillhole 3 confirms the extension of the main mineralised structure at depth, further to the north-west.

Georgia (Bolnisi Copper and Gold assets): CMG, the Russian joint venture partner in Georgia has indicated an interest in exercising its first right of refusal to acquire the 50% share of the assets held by Empire (formerly Georgian Mining). Management have yet to receive an offer from CMG that would give Empire sufficient confidence it will receive the full consideration as offered by Candelaria. The Candelaria Mining Corp Offer remains on the table.

Mike Struthers has become an NED at Empire and has now taken the role of CEO at Candelaria Mining Corp which is developing a new silver mine in Mexico and which has offered C$7m worth of listed stock to Empire mining for the 50% stake in the Kvemo Bolnisi assets in Georgia.

The Pinos gold project offers an IRR of 25% on a modest $13.5m initial capex based on low $1,250/oz gold and $17/oz silver price assumptions according to a PEA done in 2018.

The value of Pinos will be very much greater at current metals prices and currency rates indicating a .

Candelaria is in a much better position to work with CMG (the Russians jv partners) while it is busy building the Pinos gold project in Zacatecas, Mexico.

Candelaria remain keen to take on the 50% stake in the Georgian assets if CMG are unable to make a sufficient counter offer.

The deal is for an initial consideration ofC$2m of Candelaria shares plus three further payments in shares worth C$1m, C$2m and C$2m to make up a total of C$7m worth of Candelaria shares subject to achieving certain milestones.

Conclusion: Drilling at Eclipse shows an important extension to the know structure and continues to show reasonable results. Further results over the next few weeks should give us better indication of the scale and potential resource / value of the project.

*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker for Empire Metals

 

Jangada Mines (JAN LN) 6.45 pence, Mkt Cap £16.7m – ValOre financing & Fodere investment

Jangada Mines draws attention to the announcement to the TSX-V yesterday by its 17.68% owned ValOre Metals that ValOre is raising C$3.6m to progress the exploration of the Pedra Branca platinum group metals project in Brazil and its projects in the Nunavut Territory in Canada.

Jangada Mines has also announced that it has “has secured a strategic shareholding position … [of 3.6%] … in Fodere Titanium (“Fodere”), an innovative and market leading company focussed on producing titanium dioxide and vanadium from waste materials”.

The company says that Fodere “has developed a process to treat low-grade and complex titanium-bearing feedstock, where existing methods are not suitable, to produce ultra-pure high-grade synthetic rutile … [and that Fodere, whose process is described as a sustainable technology] … generating almost zero waste … is currently taking substantial steps towards the commercialisation of its pilot project in South Africa and expects to commission a small industrial plant in Q4 2021”.

 

Kodal Minerals* (KOD LN) – 0.1p, Mkt cap £11m – Extension request from JV partner rejected as Kodal set to own 100% of West African gold concessions

Kodal has received a request from Resolute for an additional extension of the Resolute JV term, as Resolute’s expenditure in the JV of approximately US$2m falls short of its commitment under the agreement. The JV covers three concessions in West Africa- Nielle, Tiebissou and M’Bahiakro.

Kodal has refused Resolute’s extension request, with Kodal now set to retain 100% ownership of the concessions when the JV expires on the 25th of February 2021, with the company set to continue exploration on all three concessions.

Kodal has received an expenditure summary from Resolute demonstrating expenditure of approximately US$2m, with expenditure on the Nielle concession exceeding US$1m. Exploration at the Nielle concession has demonstrated that gold mineralisation remains open at depth and along strike over a 1,000m strike length.

Exploration drilling of over 7,400m by Resolute has defined a gold anomaly at the Nielle project extending for over 1,000m and open along strike and at depth which will be the priority for future Kodal drilling in Cote d’Ivoire.

Kodal has received all data from the Nielle Project, with drill results including:

26m at 1.95g/t gold in drill hole NLRC012

16m at 1.96g/t gold & 10m at 3.62g/t gold in drill hole NLRC014

26m at 1.79g/t gold in drill hole NLRC018

Kodal intends to continue drilling of the defined gold anomalous trend as well as complete the early-stage exploration drilling of the gold anomalous zones defined by the surface geochemical sampling.

Kodal also reports that it is set to continue with the US$2.5m funding agreement to advance the company’s gold assets in West Africa. Kodal and the Investors are continuing negotiations over the final structure and terms of the Funding Agreement, and looking to finalise the transaction as soon as possible.

*SP Angel act as Financial Advisor and Broker to Kodal Minerals

 

Scotgold Resources* (SGZ LN) 85p, Mkt Cap £46m – Earnings Updated

BUY – 177p (from 182p)

CLICK FOR PDF

The Company updated the market on the progress of a ramp up of production at the high grade Cononish gold project last Friday.

To recap, plant throughput has been constrained by a number of materials handling issues that are expected to be resolved by the end of February. In the crushing circuit, the team is working on resolving blockages that are resulting from the breakage of Cononish ore into thin flat ‘slabs’ that accumulate in ‘pinch points’ of the circuit. Flotation circuit pumps are being replaced with higher capacity ones. Filter press automated control systems had issues during the commissioning stage that have now largely been resolved by the suppliers and their agents. Other processing plant components are reported to have been operating at or above design capacity that should help the team to ramp up to planned 3ktpm rates shortly. Separately, labour mobilisation has been slower than expected on the back of the holiday season and state imposed new COVID-19 restrictions.

As a result of the above factors, the Company pulled back its CY21 guidance from 9.9koz with plant throughput at 36kt to the 7.8-8.7koz range and 28.0-32.0kt, respectively.

Conclusion: As highlighted on Friday, as much as news about operational challenges are unwelcome, they are common during the operations ramp up process with the team expecting identified issues to be addressed by the end of February. Production is expected to accelerate as the year progresses with our CY21 estimates adjusted to 8.6koz GE to match guidance. Once Phase I 3ktpm production is achieved, Phase II expansion will kick in doubling throughput rates to 6ktpm in CY22. At expanded capacity Cononish demonstrates exceptional economics for a small scale operation with ~25kozpa in production running at ~£500/oz AISC and generating ~£25m EBITDA and ~£20m FCF ($1,925/oz and FX GBPUSD 1.3), equivalent to >40% FCF yield. We revised our target price to 177p (from 182p) that largely reflects an adjustment to our long term gold price estimates to $1,925/oz (from $1,950/oz) with production guidance revision having only minor effect on valuation and reiterate BUY recommendation highlighting strong economic fundamentals of the operation ramping up into favourable market for precious metals.

(Jun year end)

 

FY19

FY20

FY21E

FY22E

FY23E

Gold price

US$/oz

1,261

1,563

1,878

1,915

1,925

Gold price

GBP/oz

974

1,240

1,404

1,434

1,481

AUDGBP

A$/£

1.81

1.88

1.85

1.90

1.90

Gold sales

koz

4.7

15.0

27.0

TCC

GBP/oz

639

458

340

Sales

A$m

12.1

41.2

76.1

EBITDA

A$m

-3.1

-1.6

4.1

24.9

53.9

PAT

A$m

-3.5

-2.5

1.9

18.9

35.0

Basic EPS

A$c

-7.8

-5.0

3.6

34.9

64.8

FCF

A$m

-9.9

-10.0

-11.3

10.9

37.5

EV/EBITDA

x

22.0

3.6

1.7

PER

x

42.1

4.4

2.4

Source: SP Angel, Company

 

 

 

 

 

 

*SP Angel act as Nomad and broker to Scotgold Resources. A number of SP Angel analysts have visited the Cononish gold mine.

 

 

 

Analysts

John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490

Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484

Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474

Joe Rowbottom – [email protected] – 0203 470 0486

 

Sales

Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472

Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534

Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535

Grant Barker – [email protected] – 0203 470 0471

 

 

SP Angel                                                            

Prince Frederick House

35-39 Maddox Street London

W1S 2PP

 

*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)

+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.

 

Sources of commodity prices

 

Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver

BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)

Gold ETFs, Steel

Bloomberg

Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt

LME

Oil Brent

ICE

Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore

NYMEX

Thermal Coal

Bloomberg OTC Composite

Coking Coal

SSY

RRE

Steelhome

Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Antimony

Asian Metal

Tungsten

Metal Bulletin

 

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This note has been issued by SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP (‘SPA’) to promote its investment services. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed herein constitutes, or is to be construed as, an offer or invitation or other solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell investments. The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is wholly accurate or complete. All opinions and estimates included in this report are subject to change without notice. It is not investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives and policies, financial position or portfolio composition of any recipient. SPA is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. Where the subject of the research is a client company of SPA we may have shown a draft of the research (or parts of it) to the company prior to publication to check factual accuracy, soundness of assumptions etc.

Distribution of this note does not imply distribution of future notes covering the same issuers, companies or subject matter.

Where the investment is traded on AIM it should be noted that liquidity may be lower and price movements more volatile.

SPA, its partners, officers and/or employees may own or have positions in any investment(s) mentioned herein or related thereto and may, from time to time add to, or dispose of, any such investment(s).

SPA is registered in England and Wales with company number OC317049.  The registered office address is Prince Frederick House, 35-39 Maddox Street, London W1S 2PP.  SPA is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is a Member of the London Stock Exchange plc.

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A full analysis is available on our website here http://www.spangel.co.uk/legal-and-regulatory-notices.html. If you have any queries, feel free to contact our Compliance Officer, Tim Jenkins ([email protected]).

SPA research ratings – Based on a time horizon of 12 months: Buy = Expected return of more than 15%, Hold = Expected return between -15% and +15%, Sell = Expected return of less than 15%

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