SP Angel . Morning View . Friday 14 05 21
Markets climb as Fed highlights transitory nature of stronger inflation
We are raising funds for a private copper company in Chile which has grabbed our interest
The company has a historic ‘high-grade’ copper mine which was abandoned >100 years ago.
Drilling is planned to test two large geophysical targets underneath the historic mine may be mineralised porphyry structures.
There is also potential to reopen the historic mine which lies relatively close to a number of the world’s major copper mines
Please let us know if you are interested in participating in this opportunity.
*SP Angel’s role is limited to making introductions and interested parties should be aware that investment in a private company can present certain risks not present in listed companies (e.g. limited or no liquidity and no rules compelling disclosure of information to investors).
Beowulf Mining* (LON:BEM) – Updated corporate presentation
Bushveld Minerals* (LON:BMN) – Q1 report highlights continued optimisation of expansion plans for Vanchem and Vametco
Condor Gold* (LON:CNR) – Q1 results and progress report on La India
Horizonte Minerals (LON:HZM) – Q1 results highlight £18m raised and progress with power line licence for the Araguaia ferronickel project
Power Metal Resources* (LON:POW) – AEM survey indicates seven conductive anomalies at South Ghanzi
Kavango Resources (LON:KAV)
IGTV: Are the commodity markets in another supercycle? https://www.ig.com/uk/market-insight-articles/are-the-commodity-markets-in-another-supercycle–210513
Improved global economic forecasts from the IMF provides trading opportunities: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_GXKPqzuCG0
VOX Markets: 06/05/20: https://audioboom.com/posts/7861994-john-meyer-on-copper-afritin-kodal-minerals-phoenix-copper-power-metals
*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts.
We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Inflation – commodity price-led inflation to combine with higher wages to create potential for inflation spiral
Capital Economics reckon the “Fed is wrong on inflation and the US faces a wage-price spiral”
Historically, pandemics are followed by new demands from workers (historically Luddites) for better conditions and higher wages.
Many employers, SP Angel included, are working hard to look after those who have worked so hard to support the business and are raising compensation levels.
But – the Fed is right in that the anomalous April to 4.2% was largely led by a massive increase in the price of used cars and that second hand auto prices are likely to pull back, dragging the inflation estimates lower.
The used car market may be partly driven by stimulus and partly by a shortage in the availability of new cars due to the semiconductor shortage.
US inflation of 4.2% largely driven by higher used car prices which jumped 20% in the first four months of the year
Deliveries of new vehicles are hit by a shortage of semiconductors helping to drive up prices
Rental costs are also expected to rise reflecting a 12% yoy increase in US house prices.
PPI rose 0.6% in April vs 1.0% in March and 6.2% yoy in April vs 4.2% in March
Core PPI rose 0.7% in April vs 0.7% in March, yoy 4.1% yoy in April vs 3.1% yoy in March
Dow Jones Industrials +1.29% at 34,021
Nikkei 225 +2.32% at 28,084
HK Hang Seng +1.10% at 28,023
Shanghai Composite +1.77% at 3,490
US – Jobless claims dropped 34k to 473k in the week ended May 8 hitting a new pandemic low as the economy gradually reopens.
Bloomberg estimates May payroll numbers to show a recovery in the pace of new jobs created with an estimate for 450k following disappointing 266k in April.
Federal Reserve officials tried to ease monetary policy tightening concerns arguing a pick up in inflation as economy reopens will prove transitionary.
Overnight, Governor Christopher Waller suggested that rates will not rise for quite some time following on similar comments by Lael Brainard and Richard Clarida earlier in the week (all are voting members of the FOMC).
China – Q1 GDP that rose 0.6% qoq vs Q4 3.2% and 18.3% yoy vs 6.5% yoy in Q4
Industrial production rose 14.1% yoy in March
retail sales 34.2% yoy in March
Q1 fixed asset investment rose 25.6%.
Equities are stronger this morning recouping some of its losses as markets are on course to post their biggest drop in 11 weeks on concerns for accelerating inflation.
US inflation expectations have been steadily climbing from the start of the year with markets currently forecasting inflation around 2.5% over the next 10 years compared to ~2% at the start of the year.
Colonial Pipeline, the largest fuel pipeline in the US, resumed operations following a six day outage after a crippling cyber attack.
The Company is reported to have paid a ~$5m worth ransom in cryptocurrency to cyber attackers.
The hackers provided Colonial Pipeline with a decrypting tool to restore its disabled computer network after they received the payment.
Global travel and tourism employment contracted by 20% last year with the pandemic costing the sector 62m jobs and $4.5tn in lost income, according to a global industry forum.
Japan – The government expanded a state of emergency to three more prefectures as it struggles to contain Covid-19 with a little over two months to go until the Tokyo Olympics.
Hokkaido, Okayama and Hiroshima are expected to enter a state of emergency on Sunday with the reproduction rate running at 1.4-1.6 in those areas, FT reports.
Under the order restaurants are asked to close early while the public will be asked to work from home.
This will take total number of prefectures under the order to nine including the capital Tokyo.
New daily cases climbed to 7,000 a day in Japan.
Germany – Restrictions may ease in the coming days as the nation contagion rate dropped below a key level for the first time in nearly two months, according to Bloomberg.
Infections per 100,000 people over the last week dropped to 96.5 today, the first time its been below 100 since late March.
Latest lockdown measures introduced by Angel Merkel’s cabinet are allowed to be loosened up if the incidence rate drops below 100 for five consecutive days.
UK – The government is closely monitoring increasing numbers of the Covid-19 variant from India with new cases climbing to 1,313 from 520 over the past week.
Authorities are ruling nothing out on tackling the spread of the variant including the possibility of local lockdowns in the worst-hit areas, Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi said today.
Mexico – the central bank left its key rate unchanged at 4% on Thursday arguing that inflation at more than twice the target is caused by temporary factors, according to Bloomberg.
Inflation came in at 6.1% in April compared to a 3% (+/- 1pp) level targeted by the central bank.
Monetary authorities are expecting inflation to converge to its target starting in Q2/22.
US$1.2108/eur vs 1.2102/eur yesterday. Yen 109.40/$ vs 109.51/$. SAr 14.153/$ vs 14.078/$. $1.406/gbp vs $1.407/gbp. 0.774/aud vs 0.773/aud. CNY 6.435/$ vs 6.450/$.
Gold US$1,833/oz vs US$1,821/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 100.1moz vs US$99.9moz yesterday
Platinum US$1,225/oz vs US$1,222/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,908/oz vs US$2,883/oz yesterday
Silver US$27.20/oz vs US$27.08/oz yesterday
Copper US$ 10,268/t vs US$10,453/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,437/t vs US$2,484/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 17,335/t vs US$17,480/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 2,920/t vs US$2,937/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,158/t vs US$2,157/t yesterday
Tin US$ 29,285/t vs US$29,430/t yesterday
Oil US$66.9/bbl vs US$68.2/bbl yesterday
Oil prices dropped by almost 3% yesterday, the biggest percentage drop since early April, after the restart of Colonial Pipeline eased some of the concerns about gasoline shortages in the US
Oil prices reversed gains from earlier this week when reports from both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) reiterated the view that global oil demand would rebound strongly in the second half of the year with more economies reopening and increased travel amid higher vaccination rates
The excess oil inventories of the past year have been all but depleted, and a strong demand rebound in the second half this year could lead to even steeper stock draws, the IEA said on Wednesday
The agency’s bullish outlook on demand, coupled with a similar view from OPEC from Tuesday, sent oil prices to an eight-week high on Wednesday
But yesterday, the market focused again on the COVID crisis in India and the coronavirus strain there
In addition, Colonial Pipeline resumed operations late on Wednesday
Colonial warned that a full return to normal deliveries after a ransomware attack forced a total shutdown on Friday would take a few more days
Yet the gradual restart eased some of the concerns that the US East Coast would suffer from fuel shortages beyond this weekend
On Thursday, the US dollar also played a part in falling oil prices as the greenback strengthened, making crude buying more expensive for holders of other currencies
Concerns about inflation have added to the bearish note on the markets
Natural Gas US$2.972/mmbtu vs US$2.971/mmbtu yesterday
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$210.0/t vs US$227.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$962.5/t vs US$960.1/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$79.1/t vs US$80.1/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$133.0/t vs US$128.0/t
Cobalt LME 3m US$44,635/t vs US$45,635/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$80,416/t vs US$80,446/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$12,742/t vs US$12,710/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$630/t vs US$630/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,702/t vs US$1,700/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$272/t vs US$272/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$505/t vs US$505/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% $7.4/lb vs $7.4/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% $33.15/kg vs $33.15/kg
Iron ore future extend decline, falling daily limit on Dalian Exchange
Iron ore prices continued to slump on Friday, with prices falling sharply today and yesterday after record highs were achieved earlier in the week.
Futures in Dalian dropped the daily limit before closing 3.6% down, while prices tumbled 11% in Singapore.
Tangshan city banned steelmakers from spreading price-hike information as the government tries to keep a lid on surging prices (Bloomberg).
Tesla in talks with Chinese battery manufacture over battery supply
Tesla have been in talks with Chinese battery maker EVE Energy Co. to add the company to its Shanghai supply chain as it seeks to procure lower cost batteries.
Elon Musk said this year the company would be shifting the batteries in standard range cars to an iron cathode sue to concerns about the supply of nickel for scaling up battery production.
EVE manufacture lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries and would become Tesla’s second LFP battery supplier after the Contemporary Amperex Co.
Beowulf Mining* (LON:BEM) 4.3p, Mkt cap £35.6m – Updated corporate presentation
Beowulf has provided an updated corporate presentation which provides the latest insight into its three business areas:
High-quality iron ore for fossil free steel manufacturing
Graphite for lithium-ion battery anodes
European base metals project for transition to green economy
The Company reiterates its strong financial position, commenting that it is fully finded for all 2021 work programmes.
The presentation can be viewed here: https://beowulfmining.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Beowulf-Proactive-Presentation-May21.pdf
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker for Beowulf Mining
Bushveld Minerals* (LON:BMN) 18.5p, Mkt cap £220m – Q1 report highlights continued optimisation of expansion plans for Vanchem and Vametco
(Bushveld is invested in Enerox alongside 5.66% in Invinity Energy Systems)
Strong Buy 31p
Bushveld Minerals report ongoing work on the optimisation of plans to further expand vanadium output at the Vametco and Vanchem plants in South Africa
Covid-19: there are currently no active Covid-19 cases among employees.
The team, along with a new operations director at Vametco, have a number of work streams underway to improve operational stability
This has led to a negative impact through the first quarter from the planned 35-day maintenance program.
Production through the quarter was also hit by unprotected industrial action in April which stopped production for five days
The stoppage and the time to ramp up production lost some 65t of vanadium to the quarter.
Q1 2021 Group production fell 22% yoy to 688mtV vs 880mtV a year ago due to the 35-day planned maintenance shutdown at Vametco.
Q1 2021 Group sales fell 27% yoy to 788mtV1 vs 1,080mtV yoy
Guidancefor the group is now expected towards the lower end of the 4,100-4,350mtV range
Vametco: Production of Nitrovan, Vametco’s key product fell 40% yoy to 395mtV
C1 cash costs rose 37% to $26.51/KgV
Guidance is for Vametco production to come in towards the lower end of guidance of 2,700- 2,850mtV and between US$20.0-US$21.30/kgV cash costs
Vametco Phase III expansion PFS is underway – some results of this work may start immediately such as improving silica levels into the plant.
Vanchem production rose 34% yoy to 293mtV vs 219mtV yoy
C1 Cash costs rose 20% to $30.7/mtV partly due to the stronger South African rand
Production is now expected towards the lower end of guidance of between 1,400- 1,500mtV due to heightened risks associated with the ramp-up of the first phase refurbishment.
Costs are estimated at $26.20-26.70/kgV
Phase one of the Vanchem refurbishment programme continues and is on track with the kiln-3 refurbishment project due to complete in Q4 2021.
The 35-day maintenance shutdown is expected to improve operational stability and reliability and reduce performance issues which have hampered production in the past.
Bushveld Electrolyte Company: development of a 200MWh electrolyte manufacturing plant progressing to plan.
Installation of major equipment is planned for during Q3 2021 with plant commissioning expected in H2 2022.
Capex revised to ~$13.6m including the $2.1 m already spent vs the original estimate of $10m. The remaining funding will be funded using equity and debt instruments
Bushveld’s capex commitment has been amended to ~$5.1m through to 2024 with the remaining $8.5m to be funded through equity and debt instruments
Vanadium prices continue rise with Asian Metals reporting $36-37/mtv for 80% ferro-vanadium in China on strong demand and tight inventories.
Prices rose through Q1 on supply chain demand disruption but still appear to lag the very substantial increase in steel production in China.
We expect vanadium prices to rise significantly this year as the vanadium market when we expect vanadium supply/demand to hit a tipping point whereby consumers will have to fight harder to secure available supplies.
We are seeing US and European steel mills ramping up capacity again to meet new demand for structural steel for construction led by stimulus projects and housing.
The mills will increasingly compete to attract ferro-vanadium, much of which is currently headed for China
Vanadium prices tend to lag steel production indicating to us that vanadium prices should spring higher at some point this year.
High vanadium imports into China indicate that local vanadium production is low – as expected from the increase in use of low vanadium content Australian iron ore.
There is no way that China’s vanadium production is able to keep up with internal demand indicating that the market will likely move to deficit sometime soon as it does not appear to be able to produce sufficient material for consumption.
VRFB vanadium demand: we also expect to see continued growth in demand from the energy sector
There appears to be a new global recognition for Flow batteries for grid energy storage from utilities with a new momentum in this market
The recent partnership forged between Invinity and Siemens appears to be evidence for this.
Mokopane mine plan – work for DFS underway and engaging with the local communities for access
Ore supply: Vametco resource is an option for supply of ore / concentrates to Vanchem.
Mineralogy is consistent at Mokopane and Vametco and work ongoing to optimise supply of material
SA rand rate through Q1 has been strong mainly due to higher commodity prices across the board
Expansion at Vametco is not a single step expansion – leach section is a capacity constraint / running an option analysis to use belt filters or leach vats
Bushveld is also increasing the technical data available to show greater control and transparency of the mining and production process
Conclusion: Bushveld continued to ramp up production at Vamchem and planned major refurbishment work at Vametco for the first quarter.
We expect production levels to ramp up to meet strengthening vanadium prices through the rest of the year
*SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker to Bushveld Minerals.
Berkeley Energia Ltd (LON:BKY) 27p, Mkt Cap £75m – Amendment to draft climate-change bill in Spain
(Salamanca uranium mining project, Spain)
Berkeley Energia draws attention to the approval by Spain’s Parliament of “an amendment to the draft climate change and energy transition bill relating to the investigation and exploitation of radioactive minerals”.
The amendment provides for “Existing concessions, and open proceedings and applications related to these, would continue as per normal based on the current legislation” although applications for new projects “would not be accepted” once the new law comes into force.
The company says that it “currently holds legal, valid and consolidated rights for the investigation and exploitation of its mining projects, including a valid 30-year mining licence for the Salamanca mine. With more than 120 previously granted permits and favourable reports by the relevant authorities at the local, regional, federal and European Union levels, the Authorisation for Construction for the uranium concentrate plant as a radioactive facility (“NSC II”) is the only pending approval required for Berkeley to commence full construction of the Salamanca mine”.
We presume that Berkeley Energia’s Salamanca delayed uranium project would, on this basis, legally be able to proceed, however influential lobbying factions may not wish to give up their opposition to the project without continuing to voice their objections.
Condor Gold* (LON:CNR) 49p, Mkt Cap £66.1m – Q1 results and progress report on La India
Condor reports a loss of £0.51m for the three months ending 31st March 2021 as it moves forward with the development of its La India Gold project in Nicaragua.
The company also reports a 31st March cash balance of £6.3m following a £4m funding “arranged directly by the Company with institutional and other investors”.
Condor Gold also takes the opportunity to summarise recent progress at La India where a the company envisages a planned 2800tpd mill “producing circa 100,000 oz gold p.a. and demonstrating a 5M oz Gold District”.
As previously reported, an infill drilling programme within the area of the initial starter pits, representing “circa 10% of the main La India open pit mineral reserve” is almost complete and we consider that the detailed information the drilling provides is an important factor in mitigating potential start-up risks of unexpected grade variability in the shallow starter pits.
The company confirms that feasibility level studies on the water retention dam and tailings storage area are now 75% complete with a water-balance study expected by the summer.
A 5,000m drilling programme is underway at the Cacao prospect which is within 4km of the plant site and already hosts an “an Inferred Mineral Resource of 662 Kt at 2.8 g/t gold for 60,000 oz gold” based on limited drilling in 2019. The new programme aims to demonstrate the depth continuity of the mineralisation and to extend it laterally “along strike for up to 3,000m”.
The Cacao Vein, which is “one of the thickest in the district” is reported to be located at the junction of the La India and Andrea Corridors providing a “dilatational opening between two major feeder zones” and offering an attractive exploration target in close proximity to the planned processing plant at La India. Chairman, Mark Child, confirmed that around half of the planned drilling programme has been completed at Calao.
Condor Gold also highlights the previously announced acquisition of a new 2,300tpd semi-autogenous mill from an existing operator, First Majestic Silver, which found it superfluous to their needs. This secures a key item of process plant and should, in our view, shorten the lead time required as compared with placing an order with a manufacturer.
Condor Gold also highlights First Majestic Silver’s willingness to accept US$3m of Condor Gold’s shares as part of the purchase price for the mill as “a vote of confidence in the Project”.
Conclusion: Condor Gold is making important progress on the development of La India with key infrastructure projects now well advanced and long lead-time equipment items secured. Around half of the current drilling investigation at the nearby Cacao Vein has been completed offering the potential to expand and firm up the current 60,000oz inferred resource there as part of the company’s investigation of the wider district potential which it believes could amount to 5moz of gold.
*SP Angel act as sole broker to Condor Gold
Eurasia Mining* (LON:EUA) 27p, Mkt £752bn – Eurasia asset sale process. West Kytlim operations expand capacity
We correct inaccurate Mkt Cap cited in yesterday’s note
The Company received several proposals including a proposal from a credible party for the potential acquisition of most of the Company’s assets
As such, the team has elected to focus on this potential deal exiting the strategic review and Formal Sale Process relating to the sale of the whole company.
Eurasia has been working with a number of potential bidders including providing due diligence access to those who had shown consistent interest in the Company’s asset base.
“The Directors are committed to maximising the value for all the shareholders, and we are delighted to have received a proposal from a credible party that could allow us to pay a significant dividend to all shareholders,” the Company commented in the announcement.
Separately, the Company reports the approval of the Technical Project involving West Kytlim alluvial PGM production plans.
The Project is based on the parallel development of three pits with the first two being Kluchiki and Bolshaya Sosnovka as well as the operation of three processing plants.
The first plant has already started production with the second and third expected to come on line later this quarter significantly improving operational flexibility.
The team is also working on connecting operations to the grid allowing to reduce operating costs and improve environmental footprint of the operation.
Conclusion: The team is advancing discussions with regards to the sale of the majority of its assets reporting that it received a proposal from a credible party allowing the Company to potentially monetise its PGM rich asset base at a time of record high palladium and recovering platinum prices. Separately, the Company is expanding its West Kytlim alluvial PGM operations growing its mining scale and adding two more processing units.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Eurasia Mining
Horizonte Minerals (LON:HZM) 7.35p, Mkt Cap £128m – Q1 results highlight £18m raised and progress with power line licence for the Araguaia ferronickel project
Horizonte Minerals reports a loss of £0.95m for the three months to 31st March 2021 (2020 – loss of £41,522) as it works to advance its Araguaia ferronickel project in Brazil.
The company raised £18m in February, predominantly with new institutional shareholders and as a result reports a 31st March cash balance of £26.3m.
Operationally, the company highlights the award of the “power line licence to cover the full power requirement of the Araguaia project at nameplate capacity” and it confirms the “Continued support provided to local communities in response to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic”.
Horizonte Minerals also confirms the award of a contract for the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment for its nearby Vermelho project.
Power Metal Resources* (LON:POW) 2.45p, Mkt cap £29.15m – AEM survey indicates seven conductive anomalies at South Ghanzi
Kavango Resources (LON:KAV) 4.25p, Mkt cap £14.4m
(South Ghanzi is a strategic Joint Venture between Power Metal and Kavango Resources in Botswana)
Power Metal reports that airborne electromagnetic geophysics data flown over South Ghanzi has delineated seven conductive anomalies constituting high priority targets for further work.
The 1,271km over South Ghanzi was flown together with airborne magnetic surveying, were carried out on lines 200m apart with an approximately North-South orientation.
The AEM surveys defined seven distinct conductor anomalies across both licences at South Ghanzi, appearing to be mostly related to fold hinge structures and are interpreted to be confined to the interface between the Ngwako Pan and D’Kar Formations.
The company believe that copper and zinc is an important exploration vector for the company, with copper a less mobile element in the soil. Zinc is believed to be a key “pathfinder element” in the search for major copper/silver deposits.
The most significant AEM conductor is Acacia, with the conductor approximately 4km x 4km in area and is made up of at least 4 individual pods, existing almost from surface to an interpreted depth of no more than 200m.
To date 16 line-km of soil sampling has been completed over Acacia. Results demonstrate extensive copper and zinc anomalies over the conductive target with average results over 42ppm copper and over 75ppm zinc.
Each conductive anomaly represents an area of focus for follow-up geochemical sampling and drill testing, with initial data interpretation suggests a range of target depths of 40m to 400m for exploration drilling.
The company now intends to undertake soil sampling and geological modelling ahead of a drilling programme planned for later this year.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker for Power Metal Resources
John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484
Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474
Joe Rowbottom – [email protected] – 0203 470 0486
Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472
Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534
Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535
Grant Barker – [email protected] – 0203 470 0471
Prince Frederick House
35-39 Maddox Street London
*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver
BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore
Bloomberg OTC Composite
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite